(And why that belief might be more fragile than it looks)
There’s a quiet confidence in much of Europe: Russia simply will not attack. Because it would be irrational, too costly, too suicidal. That logic has ruled European policymaking for thirty years. But logic, as history shows, is not always protection.
How Europe Traded Tanks for Gas Deals
After 1945, Western Europe built peace on memory and money. The memory of war horrors, and the money that came from trade — particularly cheap Soviet, later Russian, energy.
By the 2000s, Germany had dismantled conscription. France had frozen defence spending. Even Britain shrank its army to the smallest since the Napoleonic era. It was called the peace dividend.
Russia invaded Georgia in 2008. Later, it annexed Crimea in 2014. Many in Berlin and Brussels saw those actions as regional spasms. They did not view them as warnings. War, they believed, was a pre-modern problem.
NATO’s Umbrella and Europe’s Faith in Deterrence
Most EU capitals still sleep under NATO’s guarantee. Article 5 — “an attack on one is an attack on all” — is treated almost like scripture.
Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s Secretary General, reminded members this year: “Deterrence only works if it is credible. That credibility depends on unity. It also relies on investment.”
Yet many European armies remain hollow. According to SIPRI’s 2025 report, only seven NATO members met the 2 percent GDP target for defence spending. Germany has promised to reach it by 2027, but its own parliamentary audit warns of “critical ammunition shortages.”
How Interdependence Became Illusion
For decades, the assumption was simple — Russia needs European markets as much as Europe needs its gas. Even after Crimea, the Nord Stream pipelines kept humming.
That illusion shattered in 2022. But the mindset remains: war is bad for business, therefore war will not happen. In EU corridors, you still hear that sentence.
Europeans Distrust Russia but Still Sleep Soundly
Public opinion reflects the contradiction.
A 2025 Pew Global survey found that 82 percent of Europeans view Russia unfavourably. Far fewer believe it poses an imminent threat.
The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) found wide variation. Specifically, 78 percent of Poles and 69 percent of Finns see Russia as their greatest security concern. However, only 28 percent of Italians and 24 percent of Spaniards agree.
In Western Europe, peace is psychological — people assume NATO, not neighbours, will stop any invasion.
Daily Survival: Living with the Price of Peace
In Warsaw, a 52-year-old shopkeeper named Ewa says she no longer flinches at the sound of air-raid sirens during drills. “We practice every month now. It’s routine.”
In Munich, pensioners grumble about gas bills that doubled after sanctions. They still say, “At least the war is far away.”
This quiet adaptation — fear mixed with detachment — is what sustains Europe’s calm.
Parents & Families: What Children Hear
In Tallinn, parents whisper about conscription lists. A mother of two told Estonian Public Radio: “My boy is twelve. He asks if he’ll have to fight when he’s eighteen.”
That question — from a child in peace-time — captures the unease that politicians rarely voice.
Fatigue and the Politics of Distraction
Europe is stretched thin: inflation, migration, energy transition, far-right populism. The war in Ukraine feels both urgent and distant.
In mid-2024, an ECFR poll showed that most Europeans want the war to end “as soon as possible.” They prefer this outcome even if it means Ukraine cedes territory. That exhaustion limits Europe’s willingness to imagine conflict reaching its own borders.
Why the Assumption May Be Dangerous
Because deterrence without readiness is wishful thinking. Because an adversary often moves when his opponent is tired, not terrified.
Russia has already surprised Europe twice — in Crimea and in Kyiv. A third surprise may not come as a tank column, but as hybrid attacks, sabotage, or political manipulation.
SIPRI’s analysts warn that “European military stocks, industrial output, and recruitment levels remain at peacetime lows, despite rhetoric of rearmament.”
What Europe Should Remember
- Deterrence must feel real — both in weapons and will.
- Economic interdependence can collapse in one winter.
- Public opinion is fickle; belief in safety does not equal preparation.
- Peace is not a natural state. It is an arrangement that demands upkeep.
Final Reflection
Europe believes Russia will never attack because it hasn’t yet.
But history’s hinge turns without warning.
Perhaps the real danger lies not in Moscow’s aggression but in Europe’s disbelief that it could happen again.