The Comeback No One on the Right Was Fully Ready For
When Donald Trump returned to the White House, Europe’s populist right clinked glasses in quiet celebration. But have they celebrated too soon?
“With Trump back in power, we finally have a partner in the White House.” — Marine Le Pen, 2024 campaign rally
But Trump’s foreign policy isn’t exactly friendly fire. Instead of boosting Europe’s right, he’s complicated their message—and forced awkward recalibrations.
So here’s the real question:
Can Europe’s populist right survive Trump’s friendship?
The Rise of the New Right in Europe
Across the continent, far-right and nationalist parties have made historic gains. Let’s look at the numbers:
- France: Le Pen’s National Rally — 31.5% (highest ever in a national vote)
- Italy: Meloni’s Brothers of Italy — 28%
- Germany: AfD — 2nd place, surpassing former Chancellor Scholz’s SPD
- Austria: Freedom Party — 25.7%, later winning national elections
- Netherlands: Wilders’ far-right party — 2nd place
Currently, 6 EU countries have populist-right parties in power or coalition:
Croatia, Finland, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Slovakia
Is this a protest vote? Or is something deeper shifting?
When Trump Becomes a Liability
At first, populist leaders embraced Trump’s return. But things got messy—fast.
- Trade war threats: 20% flat tariffs on EU imports
- Bullying allies: Denmark (over Greenland), Canada (trade threats)
- Soft-on-Russia tilt: Unsettled NATO partners
- Alienation of voters: Over 50% of Europeans now call Trump an “enemy of Europe” (source)
“America’s image in Europe has fallen sharply since Trump’s return.” — Democracy Perception Index, 2024
Canada and Australia: Warnings from the Anglosphere
Trump’s chaos hasn’t just affected Europe. Look at recent elections:
Canada
- Before Trump’s return: Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, were cruising to victory.
- After Trump’s return: Liberal Mark Carney branded himself as a “liberal strongman” against Trump—and won a snap election.
Australia
- Peter Dutton’s coalition was on track… until his Trump-like policies turned toxic.
- Labor ended up winning by a larger margin than in 2022.
Rhetorical Q: Are voters growing weary of performative populism?
Denmark: The Greenland Slapback
When Trump threatened to “buy Greenland” from Denmark, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen laughed him off—and later saw a polling rebound after her party hit record lows.
“Greenland is not for sale. This is an absurd discussion.” — Mette Frederiksen, 2020
That moment is now paying political dividends. Turns out, standing up to Trump sells.
Walking a Tightrope: Right-Wing Leaders Caught Between Trump and Their Base
European populists now face a classic populist dilemma:
Support Trump and risk voter backlash
Criticize Trump and lose base loyalty
Trump’s tariffs are especially painful:
- They hit France’s agriculture, Germany’s auto exports, Italy’s manufacturing sector
- They contradict the “protect our industry” mantra with a foreign policy that’s… not exactly pro-European industry
How are leaders responding?
- Le Pen: Calls for “intelligent protectionism,” wants France to reclaim trade policy from Brussels
- Meloni: Labels the tariffs a “mistake,” urges EU negotiations
- Salvini: Initially defended Trump—then backpedaled after a public backlash
Q: Can you be anti-Brussels and anti-Trump? That’s the needle they’re trying to thread.
Eastern Europe: Still in Trump’s Corner
Not all populists are retreating.
Poland: Far-right candidate Karol Nawrocki blames the EU—not Trump—for the tariffs. Pledges direct negotiations with Washington.
Hungary: PM Viktor Orbán praised Trump’s trade war as a “smart tactic.”
“Trump’s war with Europe is strategic. Brussels has failed to protect our industries.” — Viktor Orbán
Even Hungary voted against EU counter-tariffs to send a message.
Despite Trump, the Right Keeps Rising
Here’s the paradox: Trump is toxic, but the European right is still growing.
Portugal: Far-right Chega nearly tied with the Socialists
Romania: Far-right remains 2nd largest despite a shock loss
Poland: Center-right barely beat Nawrocki. A runoff could swing the other way.
Even centrists are wobbling. Leaders like Macron and Keir Starmer have been muted in their Trump critiques, wary of inflaming tensions—but that silence risks alienating voters who want firm opposition.
Rhetorical Q: If centrists won’t push back, who will?
Final Thought: Trump as a Stress Test
Trump didn’t create Europe’s far-right—but he may be the stress test that reveals its durability.
- Can these leaders govern, not just oppose?
- Can they juggle populism and real-world diplomacy?
- Can they survive association with a volatile ally?
So far, the verdict is mixed. But make no mistake: Europe is still tilting right. And Trump’s shadow, whether helpful or harmful, looms large over every election.