Europe faces the same global oil shock, but motorists are paying very different prices as Germany, France, Spain and Austria pursue different tax and subsidy policies. The fuel crisis is exposing an uncomfortable weakness in Europe’s single market. Continue reading Europe Has a Single Market. Its Fuel Crisis Is Anything But Single
$100 oil is hitting India and Pakistan through currencies, import bills and household costs, but not equally. India consumes far more imported crude; Pakistan has less economic room to absorb a prolonged Middle East energy shock. Continue reading The Same $100 Oil Hits India and Pakistan Very Differently
A reader challenged my argument about Iran with a question I could not dismiss. He said I was using the same logic for Iran and the Houthis that America once used to justify war in Iraq and Afghanistan. I went back to the Bush Doctrine. The comparison became uncomfortable. America argued that waiting for a future threat could become more dangerous than striking first. Iran developed a very different doctrine of forward defence under very different conditions. But a familiar political argument appears underneath both. The enemy may become stronger tomorrow, so military action today starts looking defensive. A weaker … Continue reading When America Did It, We Called It Preventive War. What Do We Call Iran’s Version?
The threat in the Strait of Hormuz extends beyond military actions to financial repercussions driven by language. Tensions, often sparked by political rhetoric, trigger immediate reactions in oil markets, banking, and insurance, leading to higher costs and risks. This financial impact occurs even without physical disruption, fundamentally changing market dynamics. Continue reading The Strait of Hormuz Threat Is Now a Financial Weapon
Bottom line up front: The Israel-Iran conflict has escalated into direct warfare. Oil prices have risen by 20%. This situation threatens a global economic shock that could derail the post-pandemic recovery. Iran’s nuclear program is at stake. Additionally, critical energy chokepoints are threatened. We’re facing economic risks unlike anything since the 1970s oil crises. The Israel-Iran conflict has escalated beyond proxy warfare into the first declared war between the two nations. It has sent oil prices surging 20% in June 2025 and raised the specter of a global economic shock. Markets have shown resilience to geopolitical tensions historically. However, the … Continue reading Israel-Iran War Triggers Global Economic Tremors
