Tag: Ukraine war analysis

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Russia Lost the War the Day It Misread Ukrainian Identity

Russia believed force could redraw the map of identity. Moscow imagined that Ukrainian identity was weak, artificial, or temporary. This misunderstanding of Ukrainian identity became the quiet beginning of Russia’s defeat. From the first week of the invasion, the Kremlin misread what makes a nation hold together, and that mistake changed the entire course of the war. The idea that Ukrainians would welcome Russian troops was not based on evidence. It was built on assumptions from Soviet memory, imperial nostalgia, and a belief that identity could be imposed on people like a new language textbook. That belief collided with reality … Continue reading Russia Lost the War the Day It Misread Ukrainian Identity

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What If the West Is Wrong About Russian Collapse?

There is a strange quiet around European diplomats these days. The looming possibility of a collapsing Russia adds to the kind of quiet you hear before a monsoon breaks in Karachi. People speak softly in corridors, lower their voices at conferences and pretend the future is still predictable. I keep thinking about that silence because it hides two fears that cannot exist together. One fear is old. The fear of a strong Russia. The other fear is new. The fear of a collapsing Russia. And the more I read arguments from Ukrainians, Western analysts and even retired soldiers, the more … Continue reading What If the West Is Wrong About Russian Collapse?

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Symbolic representation of Lavrov disappearance Russia, showing an empty Kremlin corridor suggesting a political power shift inside Moscow.”

Lavrov Disappearance Russia: Why It Signals a Shift, Not a Collapse

There is something eerie about a powerful man slipping out of view. One week he is everywhere, shaking hands, scowling at cameras, lecturing Western diplomats. Then nothing. No photographs. No staged meetings. Not even the usual clip of him sitting … Continue reading Lavrov Disappearance Russia: Why It Signals a Shift, Not a Collapse