U.S. Hypocrisy in Foreign Policy: Why the World No Longer Believes Washington

The phrase U.S. hypocrisy in foreign policy no longer sounds like criticism. It feels like accumulated memory. Each new conflict does not erase the past. It brings it back, quietly but clearly.

When Washington speaks about sovereignty today, many countries do not just listen. They compare.


U.S. Hypocrisy in Foreign Policy and the Language of Power

Since 2022, the United States has framed Russia’s war in Ukraine as a moral struggle. The language is precise. Democracy versus aggression.

However, comparison complicates that clarity.

Kosovo in 1999 was described by NATO as humanitarian intervention. Crimea in 2014 was described as illegal annexation. Both involved force. Only one was legitimised.

Institutions such as the United Nations were designed to apply universal rules. In practice, enforcement follows power. Smaller states comply. Larger states interpret.

That is where trust begins to weaken.


Historical Roots of U.S. Hypocrisy in Foreign Policy

The pattern stretches across decades and regions.

  • Guatemala (1954): CIA-backed removal of an elected government
  • Chile (1973): overthrow of Salvador Allende
  • Iraq (2003): invasion based on weapons that were never found

Research from the Brown University Watson Institute estimates that post-9/11 conflicts caused over 300,000 civilian deaths and displaced millions.

These outcomes still shape how global audiences interpret current U.S. policy.


Real-World Impact of U.S. Hypocrisy in Foreign Policy Today

The consequences are not confined to history. They are visible in present systems.

Sanctions and Civilian Consequences

Sanctions are often presented as targeted tools. Their real-world effects are broader.

According to analysis discussed by the Council on Foreign Relations, economic sanctions frequently reduce access to food, medicine, and financial services.

Recent studies suggest that sanctions-related disruptions contribute to hundreds of thousands of deaths annually, particularly in vulnerable populations.


Financial Power, SWIFT, and Economic Pressure

Modern foreign policy operates through financial systems as much as through military force.

Restrictions on global payment access can:

  • Slow trade flows
  • Destabilise currencies
  • Limit essential imports

In practice, access to financial messaging systems determines whether an economy can function normally. When that access is restricted, pressure extends beyond governments to ordinary citizens.

Data compiled by the Center for a New American Security shows that the United States has imposed thousands of sanctions in recent years, making financial pressure a central policy tool.


Global Spillover Effects (2025–2026 Context)

Recent geopolitical tensions are already affecting global systems.

Reports from the International Energy Agency and the International Monetary Fund indicate:

  • Energy disruptions affecting a significant share of global supply
  • Rising food and fertilizer prices
  • Increased pressure on emerging market currencies

These effects extend far beyond the countries directly involved in conflict.


U.S. Hypocrisy in Foreign Policy and Strategic Interests

American foreign policy often balances ideals with strategic priorities.

Support has been extended to governments that ensured stability, even when democratic standards were limited. Examples include Cold War alliances and modern security partnerships in the Middle East.

The pattern is consistent:

  • Allies’ actions are framed as stability
  • Rivals’ actions are framed as aggression

The distinction reflects interest, not principle.


Why Narrative Still Matters

Despite contradictions, the United States continues to rely on moral language. There is a reason for this.

Narrative performs three key functions:

  • Legitimacy: it justifies policy decisions
  • Alignment: it keeps alliances intact
  • Influence: it supports the global role of the dollar

Military power is costly. Narrative is efficient.

However, credibility has limits. When actions repeatedly diverge from language, belief begins to weaken.


Key Takeaways

  • U.S. hypocrisy in foreign policy reflects long-term historical patterns
  • Sanctions and financial tools produce real civilian consequences
  • Global trust is shifting, especially in emerging economies
  • Narrative still works, but less effectively than before

Conclusion

The issue is no longer whether contradictions exist. That question has already been answered by history.

The real question is whether those contradictions still persuade.

For decades, the United States shaped how the world understood power and legitimacy. That influence remains. Yet it now faces quiet resistance.

Countries are listening more carefully. They are also remembering more clearly.

When the next crisis comes, the language may sound familiar. The response, however, may be different.


🔗 Sources and Further Reading

  • Brown University Watson Institute
  • International Monetary Fund
  • United Nations
  • Council on Foreign Relations
  • International Energy Agency
  • Center for a New American Security

Why Russia’s Turn Toward North Korea Signals a New Global Arms Reality

Russia’s growing military relationship with North Korea has become one of the most revealing developments of the Ukraine war. The Russia North Korea arms partnership is no longer a rumour. It is an active supply route. Trains and cargo ships have moved large quantities of artillery shells, rockets, and possibly ballistic missiles into Russian territory. The scale is not fully known, yet the political signal is unmistakable.

Russia has decided that working with a sanctioned and isolated state is better than slowing its campaign in Ukraine.

Background: A War Machine Under Pressure

Russia entered the conflict with vast Soviet-era stockpiles. Those reserves allowed Moscow to fire thousands of shells every day. That rate of fire placed huge stress on Russian industry. Sanctions increased the strain and reduced access to imported electronics. Factories in Russia still produce tanks and ammunition. They run long working hours and rely on refurbished equipment from storage depots. Production remains significant. However, Russia cannot replace advanced optics or thermal cameras at the same speed.

North Korea filled that gap. It produces simple but reliable ammunition. It stores millions of shells. It has no restrictions on using older manufacturing methods. This combination attracted Moscow at a moment of urgent need.

What North Korea Provides and Why It Matters

Satellite images, defence briefings, and UN monitoring work confirm that North Korea is shipping weapons to Russia. The most common deliveries include:

122mm and 152mm artillery shells

Short-range rockets

Possibly KN-23 ballistic missiles

No credible intelligence supports claims that North Korea supplies forty per cent of Russia’s ammunition. The figure circulates in activist commentary, not in verified military assessments. What is known is that these shipments help Russia maintain its artillery dominance on several fronts. A steady volume of shells is more important than perfect quality.

This support does not prove that Russia’s industry has collapsed. It shows that Russia wants more ammunition than its factories can produce under sanctions.

A New Strategic Alignment

This partnership changes the political map of Asia. Moscow’s willingness to rely on Pyongyang demonstrates a shift in global alliances. Russia once avoided open military cooperation with North Korea because of international pressure. That hesitation has faded. The Kremlin now views the relationship as a counterweight to Western sanctions and diplomatic isolation.

North Korea gains several advantages:

Fuel

Food supplies

Technical assistance

A powerful diplomatic shield at the UN

This exchange strengthens both governments at a time when each faces international restrictions.

Why the Partnership Signals a Larger Trend

The most important point is not the number of shells. It is the collapse of old geopolitical boundaries. A major nuclear power is openly trading weapons with a state that has long been treated as a global outcast. This would have been unthinkable a decade ago. Now it reflects a broader transition in the international system.

China watches this cooperation carefully. South Korea and Japan see a new security threat. The United States must adjust its sanctions strategy because two isolated states have found mutual benefit in resisting Western pressure.

What This Means for the Future

The Russia North Korea arms partnership is a sign of a changing world. It shows that Western sanctions have pushed Moscow into new relationships. It also shows that Pyongyang has become an important supplier in a long war. This shift may reshape regional security for years. It could also encourage other sanctioned states to explore similar arrangements.

The partnership tells us that the global order is becoming more fluid and more unpredictable.

Seizing Russia’s Money May End the West’s Power, Not Putin’s

Europe is preparing to convert Russia’s three hundred billion dollars of frozen reserves into Ukrainian reconstruction funds. The plan appears strong on paper, offering moral satisfaction and allowing leaders to assert decisive action. However, beneath this surface confidence lies a significant shift in the global financial system.

The West established its financial authority on the principle that money held in Western banks would remain politically neutral. Seizing Russia’s assets fundamentally challenges this belief, which has underpinned the dollar era and attracted trillions of foreign reserves into American and European institutions. It has fostered a conviction among governments that their wealth is untouchable. If Europe breaks this long-standing rule, the ramifications will echo throughout the financial world, eroding trust in Western vaults.

In response to European actions, Russia will likely react strongly. Currently, Western companies retain nearly one trillion dollars in assets within Russia — spanning industrial stakes, energy ventures, property portfolios, and financial operations. This reality underscores that none of these assets exist outside of political contexts. Should Europe take Russian reserves, Russia is poised to reclaim what remains within its borders. This is not merely symbolic; it marks the initiation of a long-term financial confrontation.

Moreover, the global payment system is more fragile than many acknowledge. SWIFT operates on the foundation of trust, and the mechanics of cross-border flows hinge on predictable rules. Having witnessed this from the inside, I can affirm that when trust erodes, the system does not collapse abruptly but instead deteriorates gradually. It becomes increasingly cautious and political.

Countries such as China, India, and the Gulf states are observing this situation closely, particularly concerning the seizure of Russian assets. They are wary of placing their reserves in the hands of volatile decisions from Brussels or Washington. Consequently, there is a shift toward gold, local currency trade, and BRICS settlement platforms. Once perceived as experimental moves, these strategies now arise as a form of quiet insurance.

While Europe aims to isolate Russia by appropriating its assets, it risks isolating itself. Currency strength hinges on trust. If global reserve holders begin redirecting their savings away from Western banks, the global balance of power could gradually shift — not instantly or dramatically, but akin to tides reshaping a coastline.

The moral rationale is straightforward: Russia instigated a war, and Ukraine warrants support. Nevertheless, financial systems do not conform to moral narratives; they prioritize stability and historical precedence. Once the West demonstrates that foreign reserves can be confiscated, the long-term repercussions could extend well beyond this specific conflict.

Putin is acutely aware of these dynamics. He understands that money gravitates toward stable regulations. If Western financial norms begin to waver, the future may pivot towards systems constructed outside the traditional dollar and euro spheres. The pivotal moment might not occur on the battlefield but rather when Europe takes Russia’s money, revealing that global savings are ready to shift in response to the broader implications of such actions.

Sources

Questions for Readers

  • What are your thoughts on the potential consequences of seizing frozen assets?
  • How do you see this situation impacting global trust in Western financial systems?
  • Do you believe that alternative currency systems will gain prominence in light of these developments?

The West Is No Longer Making Peace. It Is Performing It

Peace used to be a negotiation. Today it looks more like a stage production, often resembling the act of performing peace. Europe announces a proposal. Washington adds its voice. Moscow rejects it. The script moves forward and everyone plays the part written for them long before the cameras turned on.

Performing peace

This cycle repeated itself again this week. Europe put forward a plan that looked serious at first glance. It had structure and diplomatic language. It was presented as a path to end the war. Yet anyone who studies the details can see it clearly. The proposal is written in a way that no Russian government can accept. It is a performance, not an offer. The emphasis remains on performing peace.

Europe knows the rejection will come. Performing peace is the point. A rejection allows European leaders to stand before their voters and say that they tried. The proposal becomes a prop, a tool to shift the moral burden. Europe can point to the Kremlin and say, “Look, peace was on the table. Moscow refused.”

Trump plays a different kind of theatre. His show is driven by attention. He needs credit. He needs a spotlight. A short ceasefire would be enough for him to claim a historic win. In performing peace, he would say that he brought peace, even if it lasted only a few days. When the ceasefire collapsed, he would blame someone else. He would keep the applause and pass the failure to others.

This is the core problem with today’s diplomacy. The actors are rewarded for moments, not for outcomes. A real peace deal needs inviolability. It must last. It must survive pressure, mistakes, and political cycles. Temporary peace is not peace. It is an announcement. But announcements earn headlines and headlines earn political capital.

There is a gap between what leaders present to the public and what they know privately. The public hears talk of peace. The people in the room know that nothing is being resolved. They work on narratives, not settlements. In performing peace, the language is polished. The goals are short term. The war continues.

It is troubling to watch serious issues turn into props. The lives at stake become background material for political theatre. Europe wants to look responsible. Trump wants to look victorious. Russia wants to look unbreakable. Everyone is performing peace for a different audience. No one commits to the hard work that a real peace settlement demands.

The world pays the price for this shift. Peace becomes a photo. A tweet. A podium moment. It does not become a lived reality. We see announcements. We do not see solutions. The stage lights stay bright while the war grinds on in the dark.

Real peace needs something stronger than performance. It needs seriousness and patience. It needs leaders willing to be judged by results, not by the applause in the first twenty-four hours. This is the challenge of performing peace, and no one seems ready for it. Not Europe. Not Moscow. Not Trump.

Until that changes, we will keep watching the same show and calling it diplomacy.

The Dangerous Fantasy of a Collapsing Russia

A strange temptation has crept into Western conversations. You hear it whispered at conferences, hinted at in newspaper columns, and shouted outright in comment threads. Some people want Russia to fall apart. They imagine borders tearing, regions breaking away, the Kremlin reduced to rubble, and an exhausted country finally punished for its wars.

A cracked map of Russia breaking into fragments against the Russian flag, symbolising the danger of a collapsing Russia and regional instability.

It sounds cathartic. It feels like justice. Yet the fantasy of a collapsing Russia is far more dangerous than people admit.

It is also built on emotion, not memory.

Why a Collapsing Russia Terrifies Europe More Than a Strong One

Whenever someone says they want Russia to break, what they really want is closure. They want an end to the bombing of Ukrainian cities. They want punishment for the cruelty of this war. They want a moral ending that feels balanced.

But state collapse is never an ending. It is the beginning of something more chaotic, especially with Russia collapsing.

Russia has eighty two federal subjects stretched across eleven time zones. Several of these regions carry quiet histories of separatism. Chechnya and Dagestan are the most familiar names, although Tatarstan, Sakha, and the Far East have also shown political distance before. A country this large does not disintegrate cleanly. It fractures. It leaks weapons. It produces regional warlords.

People forget that the Soviet collapse in 1991 involved fifteen new states, currency freefall, oligarch power, and nuclear uncertainty. More than thirty thousand nuclear warheads were spread across several republics. The only reason that story ended peacefully was because the international system held its breath and Ukraine agreed to transfer its nuclear arsenal to Russia.

A modern Russian breakup would not follow the same script. It would unfold in a world that is already unstable.

I keep thinking of a conversation in Munich last winter. People there spoke about Russia the way Karachi speaks about approaching monsoon clouds. Everyone could feel something shifting in the air, yet nobody could predict where the first crack would appear.

Europe fears a vacuum more than a confident Kremlin

European diplomats fear chaos more than they fear Moscow. They understand what follows state failure. Refugee flows. Armed groups. Frozen conflicts turning hot. Nuclear facilities left with uncertain command structures. Russia holds dozens of storage sites across its territory. A shaken capital can lose control faster than outsiders imagine in the scenario of Russia collapsing.

The irony is clear. Europe spent decades fearing a confident Russia. Now it fears the opposite. A shattered Russia is a geopolitical earthquake. Nobody can stop the aftershocks.

This is why European leaders talk quietly about containment without collapse. They want Russia weakened but not shattered. They want Ukraine to win without creating a humanitarian version of Chernobyl that spills across borders and decades.

Versailles is still a warning

Some voices online want Russia humiliated after the war. They want a punitive peace. They imagine reparations locked into treaties and Moscow brought to its knees.

But humiliation does not heal. Versailles is the reminder. Germany was crushed after 1918. The punishment became oxygen for Nazism. It gave shape to grievance. It turned anger into ideology.

That mistake cannot be repeated with a nuclear state.

Accountability is necessary. Revenge is a trap. A Russian fragmentation caused by humiliation would create the instability the West claims it fears, underscoring the danger of Russia collapsing.

What Ukrainian victory actually requires

Ukraine needs Russia to retreat, but not collapse entirely. Ukraine does not need Russia to disintegrate. These two outcomes are often confused by commentators who want emotional symmetry instead of political strategy.

A defeated Russia can still remain a functioning state. A broken Russia cannot. Kyiv understands this better than most observers. The safest path to reconstruction is a neighbor that is contained but intact.

Victory is essential. Collapse is not.

The emotional instinct and the geopolitical truth

The idea of a collapsing Russia feels neat from a distance. The aggressor suffers. The victim rises. The world moves on.

Reality does not follow that rhythm. Chaos spreads sideways. It leaks through borders. It enters energy markets, shipping lanes, migration routes, and intelligence networks. The idea of Russian breakup looks like justice in theory. It looks like emergency meetings in Brussels and panic across Central Asia in practice.

Many European diplomats lower their voices when discussing Russia’s internal future. They know how quickly a state can lose its center if Russia starts collapsing.

A closing thought

It is easy to wish for collapse from afar. It is harder to picture it close up. A convoy of weapons missing in Siberia. Three governors claiming the same authority. A nuclear site with unclear command. A border guard unit paid by a different capital than the one that appointed it.

This is what a real collapse looks like.

That is why the world’s greatest danger may not be Russia staying strong.
It may be Russia breaking apart before anyone is ready to handle the consequences, with collapsing Russia posing unprecedented risks.

Why Europe Believes Russia Will Never Attack

Europe’s confidence in Russian non-aggression stems from historical logic and reliance on NATO, but this belief may be precarious. Despite high anti-Russian sentiment, many Europeans remain unprepared for possible conflict. The illusion of interdependence persists, even as military readiness declines. Europe’s peace is contingent on active vigilance and preparedness.

(And why that belief might be more fragile than it looks)

There’s a quiet confidence in much of Europe: Russia simply will not attack. Because it would be irrational, too costly, too suicidal. That logic has ruled European policymaking for thirty years. But logic, as history shows, is not always protection.

How Europe Traded Tanks for Gas Deals

After 1945, Western Europe built peace on memory and money. The memory of war horrors, and the money that came from trade — particularly cheap Soviet, later Russian, energy.
By the 2000s, Germany had dismantled conscription. France had frozen defence spending. Even Britain shrank its army to the smallest since the Napoleonic era. It was called the peace dividend.

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008. Later, it annexed Crimea in 2014. Many in Berlin and Brussels saw those actions as regional spasms. They did not view them as warnings. War, they believed, was a pre-modern problem.

NATO’s Umbrella and Europe’s Faith in Deterrence

Most EU capitals still sleep under NATO’s guarantee. Article 5 — “an attack on one is an attack on all” — is treated almost like scripture.
Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s Secretary General, reminded members this year: “Deterrence only works if it is credible. That credibility depends on unity. It also relies on investment.”

Yet many European armies remain hollow. According to SIPRI’s 2025 report, only seven NATO members met the 2 percent GDP target for defence spending. Germany has promised to reach it by 2027, but its own parliamentary audit warns of “critical ammunition shortages.”

How Interdependence Became Illusion

For decades, the assumption was simple — Russia needs European markets as much as Europe needs its gas. Even after Crimea, the Nord Stream pipelines kept humming.
That illusion shattered in 2022. But the mindset remains: war is bad for business, therefore war will not happen. In EU corridors, you still hear that sentence.

Europeans Distrust Russia but Still Sleep Soundly

Public opinion reflects the contradiction.
A 2025 Pew Global survey found that 82 percent of Europeans view Russia unfavourably. Far fewer believe it poses an imminent threat.
The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) found wide variation. Specifically, 78 percent of Poles and 69 percent of Finns see Russia as their greatest security concern. However, only 28 percent of Italians and 24 percent of Spaniards agree.
In Western Europe, peace is psychological — people assume NATO, not neighbours, will stop any invasion.

Daily Survival: Living with the Price of Peace

In Warsaw, a 52-year-old shopkeeper named Ewa says she no longer flinches at the sound of air-raid sirens during drills. “We practice every month now. It’s routine.”
In Munich, pensioners grumble about gas bills that doubled after sanctions. They still say, “At least the war is far away.”
This quiet adaptation — fear mixed with detachment — is what sustains Europe’s calm.

Parents & Families: What Children Hear

In Tallinn, parents whisper about conscription lists. A mother of two told Estonian Public Radio: “My boy is twelve. He asks if he’ll have to fight when he’s eighteen.”
That question — from a child in peace-time — captures the unease that politicians rarely voice.

Fatigue and the Politics of Distraction

Europe is stretched thin: inflation, migration, energy transition, far-right populism. The war in Ukraine feels both urgent and distant.
In mid-2024, an ECFR poll showed that most Europeans want the war to end “as soon as possible.” They prefer this outcome even if it means Ukraine cedes territory. That exhaustion limits Europe’s willingness to imagine conflict reaching its own borders.

Why the Assumption May Be Dangerous

Because deterrence without readiness is wishful thinking. Because an adversary often moves when his opponent is tired, not terrified.
Russia has already surprised Europe twice — in Crimea and in Kyiv. A third surprise may not come as a tank column, but as hybrid attacks, sabotage, or political manipulation.
SIPRI’s analysts warn that “European military stocks, industrial output, and recruitment levels remain at peacetime lows, despite rhetoric of rearmament.”

What Europe Should Remember

  • Deterrence must feel real — both in weapons and will.
  • Economic interdependence can collapse in one winter.
  • Public opinion is fickle; belief in safety does not equal preparation.
  • Peace is not a natural state. It is an arrangement that demands upkeep.

Final Reflection

Europe believes Russia will never attack because it hasn’t yet.
But history’s hinge turns without warning.
Perhaps the real danger lies not in Moscow’s aggression but in Europe’s disbelief that it could happen again.

Why Europe Still Thinks Russia Will Not Attack

Europe’s confidence in Russian non-aggression stems from historical logic and reliance on NATO, but this belief may be precarious. Despite high anti-Russian sentiment, many Europeans remain unprepared for possible conflict. The illusion of interdependence persists, even as military readiness declines. Europe’s peace is contingent on active vigilance and preparedness.

Many Europeans still believe Russia will not attack Europe because it appears irrational and costly. That belief has shaped policymaking for thirty years. Yet history shows that logic does not always prevent conflict.

How Europe Swapped Tanks for Energy Deals

After 1945, Western Europe placed its trust in memory and trade. The memory of war pushed governments to avoid confrontation. Cheap Soviet and later Russian energy supported industry and comfort.
By the 2000s, Germany ended conscription, France froze defence spending, and Britain reduced its army to its smallest size since the Napoleonic era. This was called the peace dividend.

Russia’s attack on Georgia in 2008 and the annexation of Crimea in 2014 should have shaken that idea. Many in Berlin and Brussels dismissed both events as regional flare-ups rather than warnings. War was treated as something from another age.

NATO’s Umbrella and Europe’s Deterrence Belief

Most EU capitals rely on NATO’s Article 5 as their shield. It is quoted almost like scripture.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reminded members: “Deterrence only works if it is credible. That credibility depends on unity and investment.”

Yet European armies remain under-equipped. SIPRI’s 2025 report found only seven NATO states meeting the 2 percent GDP defence target. Germany promises to reach it by 2027, but its parliamentary audit warns about critical ammunition shortages.

The Illusion of Interdependence

For decades, the assumption was that economic links made conflict impossible. Europe needed gas. Russia needed Europe. Even after Ukraine lost Crimea, Nord Stream continued to operate.

The illusion collapsed after 2022, but the mindset survives. There is still a quiet belief that war will not happen because war hurts business.

Europeans Distrust Russia but Still Feel Safe

A 2025 Pew survey showed that 82 percent of Europeans view Russia negatively, yet far fewer feel an imminent threat.
The ECFR found sharp differences across the continent. Poles and Finns remain deeply worried. Italians and Spaniards do not see Russia as their main danger.

In Western Europe, peace is psychological. People trust NATO more than they trust their own military readiness.

The Price of Europe’s Peace Shows in Daily Life

In Warsaw, a shopkeeper named Ewa says she no longer reacts when sirens sound during drills. They happen every month.
In Munich, pensioners complain about gas bills that doubled after sanctions. They still shrug and say the war is far away.

This combination of fear and detachment is what keeps public calm alive.

What European Children Hear at Home

In Tallinn, parents whisper about conscription lists. One mother told Estonian Public Radio that her twelve-year-old asks whether he will have to fight when he turns eighteen.
A child’s question in a peaceful country reveals the uncertainty that politicians rarely admit.

Europe Is Tired and Distracted

Inflation, migration, energy transition, and far-right politics stretch governments thin. The Ukraine war feels both urgent and distant.

An ECFR survey in 2024 showed that most Europeans want the war to end as soon as possible, even if Ukraine gives up territory. That fatigue shapes Europe’s thinking about whether Russia will attack Europe in the future.

Why This Assumption Is Dangerous

Deterrence without readiness can fail. Adversaries often act when their opponent is tired. Russia surprised Europe in Crimea and again during the attack on Kyiv.

A future surprise may not be a tank crossing a border. It could be sabotage, cyberattacks, or political disruption.
SIPRI analysts warn that European military stocks and recruitment remain at peacetime levels despite talk of rearmament.

What Europe Needs to Remember

Peace does not maintain itself. Europe must accept that:

  • Deterrence requires real capability and political will.
  • Economic interdependence can collapse in one winter.
  • Public confidence does not equal preparedness.
  • Peace is a deliberate choice that demands investment.

Final Reflection

Europe believes Russia will not attack because it has not happened yet. History often turns when people least expect it.
The real danger may not be Russia’s aggression but Europe’s disbelief that conflict could return.