American military power has damaged Iran, but the political outcome remains unsettled. How Hormuz, nuclear verification and economic pressure could decide whether Washington actually wins. Continue reading Can America Win Battles Against Iran and Still Lose the War?
America’s depleted missile defences and Iran’s asymmetric strategy raise difficult questions about escalation. The evidence does not establish an American plan to use nuclear weapons. Continue reading The Nuclear Threshold: Why America’s Costly Iran War Does Not Make a Nuclear Strike Inevitable
A reader challenged my argument about Iran with a question I could not dismiss. He said I was using the same logic for Iran and the Houthis that America once used to justify war in Iraq and Afghanistan. I went back to the Bush Doctrine. The comparison became uncomfortable. America argued that waiting for a future threat could become more dangerous than striking first. Iran developed a very different doctrine of forward defence under very different conditions. But a familiar political argument appears underneath both. The enemy may become stronger tomorrow, so military action today starts looking defensive. A weaker … Continue reading When America Did It, We Called It Preventive War. What Do We Call Iran’s Version?
Pakistan’s Middle East diplomacy is evolving, positioning it as a significant facilitator amid regional tensions, contrasting with India’s more cautious approach. This shift reflects a changing dynamic in South Asian power politics, where Pakistan’s diplomatic engagement has begun to redefine the narrative, challenging India’s long-held strategy and spotlighting its tactical vulnerabilities. Continue reading Pakistan’s Middle East Diplomacy Is Changing South Asian Power Politics
The NATO freeloaders narrative is not just popular. It is politically useful. And that is why it keeps winning, even when the facts do not fully support it. Scroll through reactions to recent remarks by Donald Trump and a pattern … Continue reading The NATO Freeloaders Narrative Is Winning. Here’s Why That Should Worry You
Europe defense cost without US could exceed $1 trillion. Yet the real story is not just cost. It is the beginning of a structural shift in power, industry, and security across Europe. Continue reading Europe Defense Cost Without the US: $1 Trillion Shift in NATO
Europe is adjusting to a potential future without U.S. military support amidst changing NATO dynamics. With projected costs over $1 trillion to replace U.S. capabilities, European leaders are pursuing strategic autonomy. This shift reflects deeper implications for power structures, as alliances evolve under pressure rather than breaking abruptly. Continue reading NATO Divorce Cost: Europe May Spend $1 Trillion Without the U.S.
The Melian Ghost: Why Venezuela Signals the End of Global Law In 416 BC, the Athenians delivered an ultimatum to the neutral island of Melos: submit or be destroyed. When the Melians appealed to justice and the gods, the Athenians famously replied that the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must. This cold calculation remains the most honest sentence ever uttered in diplomacy. Today, as we witness the aggressive reassertion of power over sovereignty, that ancient ghost has returned to haunt our modern corridors of power. The erosion of the rules-based international order is no … Continue reading Rules-Based International Order: Is the Melos Era Returning?
There is a moment in every news cycle when the story stops being about the event and becomes something else. A hint of a deeper shift. A sense that the rules we thought existed have quietly dissolved. I felt that while reading the report on the Venezuelan boat strikes, a reminder of America’s expanding war doctrine. It reminded me of how power behaves when no one is left to restrain it. The incident looks simple on the surface. A suspected drug boat near Trinidad and Tobago. An air strike. Fire on water. Two survivors clutching the wreckage. Then a second … Continue reading America’s Expanding War Doctrine and the Venezuelan Strikes
The Meeting That Changed the Mood Volodymyr Zelenskyy travelled to Paris this week for talks with Emmanuel Macron. The atmosphere was heavy and strained. Four years of war have reshaped Europe, and the fear inside European capitals is no longer … Continue reading Why Europe Is Rejecting Trump’s 28-Point Ukraine Peace Plan
