Iran says Washington’s reply to its seven conditions for reopening Hormuz is insufficient. The dispute now turns on the sequence of concessions, competing blockades and the safety of international shipping. Continue reading The Hormuz Bargain: Can Iran Force Washington to Negotiate on Its Terms?
The United States removed one of Iran’s most dangerous enemies when it overthrew Saddam Hussein. More than two decades later, Iraq reveals an unintended consequence of the 2003 invasion: a political and security landscape in which Tehran found opportunities it never possessed under Saddam. Continue reading America Removed Saddam. The Iraq War Then Opened Space for Iran
American forces are leaving Iraq again after more than two decades of war and intervention. The harder question begins after their departure: can Baghdad control the militias, security forces and competing foreign interests operating inside Iraq? Continue reading America Is Leaving Iraq Again. The Real Test Is Who Controls Iraq Afterward
Iran’s latest Hormuz proposal exposes a change in Gulf strategy. Tehran may not need to close the Strait completely. Uncertain and conditional passage can impose economic costs while giving Iran something potentially more useful: negotiating leverage. Continue reading Iran’s New Hormuz Strategy: Why Uncertainty May Be More Powerful Than Closure
Pakistan has emerged as an important intermediary in efforts to revive Iran-US diplomacy. From the Islamabad understanding to this week’s UN meetings, Islamabad now has access to Washington, Tehran and key Gulf capitals. The opportunity is significant, but so are the risks for an energy-dependent Pakistan caught between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Continue reading Why Is Pakistan Suddenly in the Middle of Iran-US Diplomacy?
Pakistan abstained when Russia and China vetoed a UN resolution extending independent monitoring of Iran sanctions. The vote looks simple. The diplomacy behind it reveals a deeper dispute over Iran, nuclear verification and the limits of the UN Security Council. Continue reading Why Did Pakistan Abstain on the UN Vote to Monitor Iran Sanctions?
When Donald Trump welcomes Xi Jinping to Washington this week, much of the attention will naturally fall on tariffs. I will be watching something else. Iran. Trump and Xi are due to meet at the White House on 24 September. Their immediate economic task is difficult enough. A fragile U.S.-China trade truce is due to expire in November, while disagreements over critical minerals and agricultural purchases remain unresolved. But the Middle East has inserted another problem into the relationship. Washington wants China to use its economic relationship with Iran in ways that support American efforts to pressure Tehran. Beijing has … Continue reading Trump Meets Xi for Trade. Iran May Be the Issue That Changes the Conversation
Israel’s proposed Saudi oil route could bypass three chokepoints while creating a new dependence on Israeli territory. Continue reading Israel’s Pipeline Could Bypass Three Oil Chokepoints. It Could Also Make Saudi Arabia Dependent on Israel
A reader challenged my argument about Iran with a question I could not dismiss. He said I was using the same logic for Iran and the Houthis that America once used to justify war in Iraq and Afghanistan. I went back to the Bush Doctrine. The comparison became uncomfortable. America argued that waiting for a future threat could become more dangerous than striking first. Iran developed a very different doctrine of forward defence under very different conditions. But a familiar political argument appears underneath both. The enemy may become stronger tomorrow, so military action today starts looking defensive. A weaker … Continue reading When America Did It, We Called It Preventive War. What Do We Call Iran’s Version?
I spent my morning looking at a map of Islamabad, a city that has suddenly become the most important real estate on the planet. If you’ve been avoiding the news because the “Operation Epic Fury” headlines felt too heavy, I … Continue reading U.S.-Iran Peace Talks in Pakistan: A High-Stakes Coffee Date
