Pakistan’s recent involvement in Iran-Israel tensions represents a dramatic shift from traditional non-alignment to active strategic partnership with Iran, driven by complex geopolitical calculations involving Chinese investments, Indian threats, and regional security imperatives. This unprecedented alignment occurred after both countries overcame their most serious military confrontation in decades.

From crisis to strategic alignment

Pakistan and Iran transformed their relationship from near-conflict to military partnership in just twelve months. In January 2024, the countries experienced their most serious confrontation since the 1980s when Iran struck Pakistani territory with missiles targeting Baloch militants, killing two civilians. Wikipedia Pakistan retaliated with Operation Marg Bar Sarmachar, deploying J-10C fighters in escort roles while JF-17 Thunder jets conducted precision strikes against Iranian territory, killing nine people including four children. Wikipedia +3

Rather than escalating, both countries chose rapid diplomatic de-escalation. By January 29, 2024, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian visited Pakistan, establishing frameworks for expanded security cooperation. Wikipedia +2 This crisis-to-partnership transformation culminated in unprecedented military cooperation agreements by January 2025, including joint weapons production, regular naval exercises, and enhanced intelligence sharing. ArmyrecognitionThe Defense Post

The J-10C incident reveals operational integration

The J-10C fighters’ involvement in Operation Marg Bar Sarmachar marked their first operational deployment in Pakistani service, though in support rather than primary strike roles. These Chinese-made aircraft provided air cover and electronic warfare support while domestically-produced JF-17s conducted the actual strikes using extended-range precision munitions. Bulgarianmilitary

This deployment demonstrated Pakistan’s successful integration of Chinese military technology into complex cross-border operations. The 25 J-10CE aircraft ordered in December 2021 and delivered starting March 2022 represent a significant capability enhancement, featuring AESA radar, PL-15 long-range missiles, and advanced electronic warfare systems powered by Chinese WS-10B engines. Wikipedia

Strategic motivations drive unprecedented cooperation

Countering the Israel-India axis emerges as Pakistan’s primary strategic concern. The Israel-India partnership has evolved into one of the world’s most significant defense relationships, with Israel supplying 42.1% of its arms exports to India, totaling approximately $1.5 billion annually. The DiplomatWikipedia This relationship fundamentally alters South Asian strategic dynamics through:

• Advanced military systems including Barak-8 missiles ($6+ billion), Phalcon AWACS, and extensive drone capabilities The Diplomat +2
• Intelligence cooperation dating to 1968, intensifying after the 2008 Mumbai attacks The DiplomatWikipedia
• Technology transfers supporting India’s $200 billion military modernization program The Diplomat
• Joint manufacturing ventures under “Make in India” initiatives The Diplomat +2

Pakistani officials consistently describe this partnership as an existential threat. During the May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, Israeli weapons systems played central roles in Indian operations, with 25+ Israeli-made Harop loitering munitions Dawn and multiple other systems deployed against Pakistani forces. The Times of Israel

Economic security drives China-Pakistan calculations

Protecting the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) from regional instability represents Pakistan’s core strategic imperative. The $25.4 billion Phase 1 investment, with $26.8 billion in ongoing projects, transforms Pakistan’s economic foundations. Mofa China now holds $26.6 billion of Pakistan’s debt, representing 72% of external bilateral obligations.

Regional tensions directly threaten these investments. Pakistan deploys 12,000 troops specifically for CPEC protection, responding to repeated attacks by Baloch Liberation Army and Pakistani Taliban targeting Chinese workers. Wikipedia The March 2024 attack on Chinese engineers and October 2024 convoy bombing demonstrate persistent security challenges that China considers when making future investment decisions.

China’s position as regional stability broker influences Pakistani calculations. Beijing mediated the Pakistan-Iran crisis resolution and advocates diplomatic solutions to Iran-Israel tensions. Diplomatic CourierWikipedia Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian condemned Israeli strikes on Iran as violations of sovereignty, positioning China as an alternative to US policies in the region. NewsweekAl Jazeera

Military cooperation reaches unprecedented levels

Pakistan-Iran military cooperation has achieved remarkable depth since the January 2024 crisis:

Joint military production agreements include Iranian orders for 25 MFI-17 Mushshak aircraft and collaborative weapons manufacturing initiatives. WikipediaThe Defense Post Naval cooperation expanded through joint exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf, and Arabian Sea, with Iran participating in Pakistan’s AMAN-25 multinational exercises. Wikipedia +3

Intelligence sharing focuses on combating cross-border terrorism, particularly targeting Jaish al-Adl and Baloch separatist groups. Both countries established joint border security mechanisms and coordinated patrol operations along their 900-kilometer border. Bulgarianmilitary +2

Pakistan’s Iran support during Israeli strikes

Pakistan provided resolute solidarity with Iran during Israeli nuclear facility strikes in June 2025. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned Israeli attacks as violations of sovereignty and international law, while Defense Minister Khawaja Asif stated Pakistan would “safeguard Iran’s interests.” DawnArab News

Pakistan closed all border crossings with Iran temporarily due to conflict intensity and established a 24/7 Crisis Management Unit for Pakistani nationals in Iran. Al JazeeraArab News Pakistani officials affirmed Iran’s right to self-defense under UN Charter Article 51, representing unprecedented diplomatic support. Arab NewsDawn

Financing Israel’s operations reveals Western commitment

The United States remains Israel’s primary supporter, providing $17.9 billion in security assistance since October 2023 – the highest annual total since US aid began in 1959. The Costs of WarThe Associated Press This includes over 100 military aid transfers, emergency congressional appropriations of $14.3 billion, and deployment of THAAD missile defense systems with 100 US troops. Cfr

European support varies significantly. Germany approved €485 million in military exports, representing a ten-fold increase from 2022. Wikipedia +2 However, several European countries imposed partial arms embargos or license suspensions due to humanitarian concerns. The UK suspended 30 out of 350 arms export licenses, while France and others limited weapons flows. ReutersBrussels Signal

Israel’s own defense spending reached $46.5 billion in 2024, representing a 65% increase and 8.8% of GDP – the second highest globally after Ukraine. The Times of IsraelSIPRI

Regional implications and future trajectory

Pakistan’s alignment with Iran fundamentally alters regional security architecture. The partnership creates a potential China-Pakistan-Iran axis countering the Israel-India-US alignment, with significant implications for regional stability and global power balances.

Saudi Arabia and UAE pursue balanced approaches, maintaining relationships with both Iran and Israel while focusing on economic diversification. Newsweek +2 Turkey supports Iranian positions while maintaining strategic autonomy. These dynamics suggest emerging multipolar regional order replacing traditional US-dominated arrangements.

The evolution demonstrates how economic security considerations increasingly drive foreign policy calculations. Pakistan’s CPEC-centered strategy requires regional stability, making support for Iran both ideologically and economically motivated. TheasiadialogueRadio China’s investment success depends on preventing regional conflicts that could threaten infrastructure projects spanning from Xinjiang to the Arabian Sea. Wikipedia +3

Pakistan’s strategic transformation from US-aligned state to China-partnered regional power appears irreversible, with Iran ties representing a crucial component of this broader realignment. Wikipedia The success of this strategy will depend on maintaining Chinese confidence while managing regional tensions that could threaten the economic foundations of Pakistan’s development model.