Two readers challenged my earlier argument about Gaza from opposite directions. Their questions reveal a deeper problem: international law has courts, warrants and rules, but enforcement still depends heavily on states. Continue reading Gaza Exposed the West’s Moral Crisis. Now It Is Testing Whether the Rules Mean Anything
Germany calls Russia hostile and remains one of Ukraine’s key European supporters. So why did Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul sit down with Sergei Lavrov? The answer may lie not in rapprochement, but in Berlin’s attempt to rediscover direct diplomacy while the AfD competes to redefine Germany’s relationship with Moscow. Continue reading Germany Asked to Talk to Russia. Is Berlin Quietly Preparing for the Day Europe Has to Deal With Moscow Again?
NATO has spent years supporting Ukraine while carefully avoiding direct war with Russia. Moscow has every incentive to study that boundary from the other direction. The danger is not that the two sides are doing legally equivalent things, but that repeated threshold-testing may make miscalculation more likely. Continue reading NATO Drew a Line Below War. What Happens When Russia Starts Testing the Same Line?
Iran’s latest Hormuz proposal exposes a change in Gulf strategy. Tehran may not need to close the Strait completely. Uncertain and conditional passage can impose economic costs while giving Iran something potentially more useful: negotiating leverage. Continue reading Iran’s New Hormuz Strategy: Why Uncertainty May Be More Powerful Than Closure
European leaders warn about a future Russian attack on NATO, but Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Denmark use far more conditional language. Their 2026 intelligence assessments reveal the crucial differences between Russian capability, intent, probability and an imminent threat. Continue reading Europe Says Russia May Attack NATO. Its Own Intelligence Reports Tell a More Complicated Story
A full Russian invasion of NATO remains unlikely, according to Danish intelligence. But the risk of a limited attack is rising. Europe’s real vulnerability may lie in the uncertain territory between hybrid warfare and the point at which NATO invokes collective defence. Continue reading How Small Could a Russian Attack Be Before NATO Goes to War?
Denmark’s intelligence service says a Russian invasion of NATO remains unlikely, but warns of a low and growing risk of a limited military attack. The deeper danger may be an ambiguous strike that tests how NATO allies interpret and apply Article 5. Continue reading Russia Doesn’t Need to Invade NATO. It Only Needs to Make NATO Argue About Article 5
The EU preserved sanctions on roughly 3,000 Russian-linked targets by removing Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman. The bargain shows how unanimity transforms an evidence-based blacklist into a recurring political negotiation—with consequences reaching bank compliance desks as far away as Karachi. Continue reading Europe Freed Two Billionaires to Keep 3,000 Russia Sanctions Alive
Pakistan is helping Washington and Tehran negotiate an end to the Middle East conflict. Can Islamabad turn its diplomatic role into economic security while balancing its relations with Iran and the Gulf states? Continue reading Pakistan Is Helping Washington and Tehran Talk. What Does Islamabad Gain From an Iran Peace Deal?
Pakistan has emerged as an important intermediary in efforts to revive Iran-US diplomacy. From the Islamabad understanding to this week’s UN meetings, Islamabad now has access to Washington, Tehran and key Gulf capitals. The opportunity is significant, but so are the risks for an energy-dependent Pakistan caught between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Continue reading Why Is Pakistan Suddenly in the Middle of Iran-US Diplomacy?
